The Probabilistic Approach to Solving Problems

The more ideas you test in the real world, the higher the probability that at least one of them will evolve into a truly breakthrough solution.

In his outstanding book, Mastering Uncertainty, Matt Watkinson makes a compelling argument for why everything in business is a numbers game.

Whether we like it or not, some of our ideas will work, and others won’t. If we want to improve the odds, we need to focus on “broadening the top of our funnel” and increasing the number of ideas that we test.

“The quiet tyranny of trying to analyze my way into perfect decisions was replaced by a greater freedom to experiment. I no longer beat myself up if things didn’t work exactly as planned and instead began to place my bets accordingly. A fear of failure gave way to a newfound confidence to take action.”

That willingness to let go of the fear of failure, take action, and place more bets can greatly increase your own odds of success. But you first need to get out of your own head and be open to learning from the results.

That doesn’t mean randomly throwing out ideas and seeing what sticks. It means not waiting around for the “perfect” theoretical solution or a guaranteed win. Breakthrough solutions aren’t about what looks good on paper. They’re about what works best in reality.

What will you do today to broaden the top of your own funnel?

Will you start placing more bets and testing more of your ideas in the real world?

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